The rising cost of food is not only the story of global inflation, but of natural degradation. This year, Britain has seen record levels of failed harvests caused by droughts and floods. 

Short, shrinking harvests also explain the surge in supermarket prices. That’s why the climbing cost of everyday goods like olive oil, potatoes and coffee is best described as “drought-flation”. 

To protect farmers, shoppers and supermarkets, the UK government must invest in the regeneration of British soil. 

Devastating

The Bank of England warns that UK food inflation could rise by 5.5 per cent by the end of the year. For many families, this feels like yet another squeeze. 

Spanish droughts have already driven the price of olive oil up by almost 90 per cent since 2022, while coffee has hit a 50-year high after poor harvests in Brazil. 

These shocks are not isolated. In an interconnected system where Britain imports 40 per cent of its food, every disruption abroad filters rapidly into local price tags.

The reality is that global soils are losing their capacity to absorb water, store carbon, and sustain crops. When soils lose organic matter and become degraded, every spell of extreme weather becomes more disruptive. 

This issue is both global, and local. In Britain, around 40 per cent of agricultural land is already degraded. Exacerbated by extreme weather, this has a devastating effect on yields. 

Organic

This year’s AHDB harvest report shows how vulnerable British farming already is to the effects. Wheat yields averaged 7.6 t/ha, well below the ten-year average of 8.1 t/ha, while winter barley also underperformed. 

The difference between a secure harvest and a poor one often comes down to whether soils can hold water in times of drought or drain it in times of excess rain. These are staple crops British farmers have been growing for generations - now they’re at risk of failure. 

And it’s not just about quantity: the quality of the crops British farmers are able to grow has also taken a hit. AHDB noted that some spring barley loads saw up to 30 per cent downgraded, reducing their value and redirecting them into lower-grade markets. 

This isn’t just a hit to farmers’ incomes. It ripples through supply chains, raising costs for, retailers and households. As rainfall patterns become more erratic, soils with higher organic matter could help buffer these shocks. 

Replenishing

Without investment in resilience, we risk a future where poor harvests, declining quality and rising prices become the norm. This leaves farmers vulnerable, ecosystems under strain, and households bearing the brunt of the consequences.

Soil is central to breaking this cycle. Healthy soils with high levels of organic matter are better at absorbing excess in wet periods and holding it back in dry ones: organic matter is able to hold about six times its weight in water. That’s why soil is a frontline defence against both drought and flooding.

Healthy soils also store carbon, recycle nutrients, and underpin biodiversity. Yet decades of intensive, chemical-heavy farming have left many soils compacted, depleted, and far less resilient.

Current approaches still privilege short-term efficiency over long-term resilience. Industrial agriculture, with its heavy reliance on monocultures, chemical fertilisers, and pesticides, extracts from soil without replenishing it. 

Dirt

This needs to change. We allocate public funds to continue to subsidise these inputs, even as they lock farmers into dependency on global markets for fertilisers whose costs are both volatile and carbon-intensive. 

If even a portion of this funding was redirected to supporting the adoption of regenerative farming techniques, Britain could begin the process of restoring agricultural soil. By restoring soils, you restore more than food security. You restore flood protection, ecosystem stability, and rural resilience. 

Drought-flation is a warning sign. It is time that we connect the dots between soil, climate and food security. If we continue to treat soil as expendable, we will lock ourselves into a future of fragile harvests and escalating prices. 

Soil becomes dirt when you treat it as such. Breathing new life into our soils means breathing life into Britain's endangered farming tradition. To feed Britain for years to come, the government must first focus on soil. 

This Author

Praveena Sridhar is the chief science and technology officer of the Save Soil movement.