As the war between Israel, the United States, and Iran escalates, Palestinians are facing immediate and visible consequences on the ground. For Palestinians, the danger is not only that they become a secondary issue in a rapidly evolving regional order. It is that policies once considered “red lines,” including displacing populations from Gaza or annexing the West Bank, could quietly advance. Without international accountability, the possibility of Palestinian self-determination will continue to erode—and along with it the potential for improved human rights and regional stability.

The war with Iran poses a series of grave and intertwined threats to Palestinians, which are already impacting their daily lives. The humanitarian trajectory in Gaza continues largely out of sight, as diplomatic engagement slows and recovery efforts stall. In Gaza, the fragile cease-fire has not prevented Israel from continuously violating the terms of the agreement. Israel has killed dozens of Palestinians in Gaza since the war began with Iran, and most residents still live in tents, with schools, health services, and public infrastructure largely nonfunctional. In the West Bank, intensified settler violence is further setting the stage for de facto Israeli annexation.

As the war between Israel, the United States, and Iran escalates, Palestinians are facing immediate and visible consequences on the ground. For Palestinians, the danger is not only that they become a secondary issue in a rapidly evolving regional order. It is that policies once considered “red lines,” including displacing populations from Gaza or annexing the West Bank, could quietly advance. Without international accountability, the possibility of Palestinian self-determination will continue to erode—and along with it the potential for improved human rights and regional stability.

The war with Iran poses a series of grave and intertwined threats to Palestinians, which are already impacting their daily lives. The humanitarian trajectory in Gaza continues largely out of sight, as diplomatic engagement slows and recovery efforts stall. In Gaza, the fragile cease-fire has not prevented Israel from continuously violating the terms of the agreement. Israel has killed dozens of Palestinians in Gaza since the war began with Iran, and most residents still live in tents, with schools, health services, and public infrastructure largely nonfunctional. In the West Bank, intensified settler violence is further setting the stage for de facto Israeli annexation.

As a result, any prospect for any Palestinian self-determination, something promised amidst heavy caveats in U.S. President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan, is rapidly eroding. There is still no clarity on the future connection between Gaza and the West Bank, uncertainty surrounding the mandate of the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), unresolved questions about Hamas’s future, and a deepening financial crisis pushing the Palestinian Authority (PA) toward collapse.

After the war with Iran began, Israel immediately closed the Rafah border between Egypt and Gaza. It had been open for less than a month, during which only a handful of medical patients were allowed to cross for treatment abroad. Following the start of the war, Israel also stopped letting humanitarian aid trucks into Gaza for several days. Since then, the flow of goods has continued at a level far below what is needed. According to Haaretz, aid entering Gaza is 80 percent below where it was at the start of the war.

Amid this deprivation, another controversial transformation is allegedly beginning. Under the Board of Peace, tenders have been issued to begin construction of a “humanitarian city” east of the Yellow Line, called “New Rafah.” The risk is that Palestinians will be pressured to move into this city, giving up their homes (or the land where their homes once stood) in clear violation of international law. These initiatives may then free Gaza’s coastal areas for investment and broader economic development plans, while leaving Gazans vulnerable to displacement under the guise of recovery.

Meanwhile, Gaza’s governance arrangements remain deeply unclear. The NCAG exists as an official structure but is barred by Israel from entering the strip. Its mandate is ambiguous, given Israel controls roughly 60 percent of Gaza. And its connection with the PA, which governs the West Bank, remains undefined. The PA faces a deepening financial crisis, with the finance minister warning that the government “needs a solution from the sky” to survive. Hamas, for its part, has maintained control over part of the Gaza Strip. But the organization is still reeling from the war and has yet to articulate a consistent position on Trump’s 20-point peace plan.

Talks aimed at advancing Trump’s 20-point plan for Gaza—including full Israeli withdrawal, governance reforms, deployment of the International Stabilization Force (ISF), disarmament, and reconstruction—have slowed dramatically. The deeper reality is that the 20 points of the plan are not created equal. Absent international attention, the elements that are politically convenient for Israel are the only parts likely to advance, while commitments to full withdrawal, governance, and meaningful recovery will remain stuck, leaving Palestinians without real control over their future.

Some voices within Israel already believe that the Iran war could present an opportunity to restart the conflict with Hamas, potentially obviating the concessions required by Phase 2. Meanwhile, Gulf and Arab states are making strategic calculations about their relationship with the United States, balancing security alliances with Washington against regional stability and economic interests. Those who had pledged billions for the Board of Peace are now preoccupied with protecting themselves from the fallout of the Iran war. At the same time, Europe remains largely sidelined, managing energy, Ukraine, and financial pressures. Similarly, Indonesia, the only country publicly committed to sending forces to the ISF, has placed Board of Peace discussions on hold amid growing domestic pressure.

The situation in the West Bank has also taken a turn for the worse. Here, Israel is advancing a coordinated strategy that fuses state force with armed settler violence to expand territorial control. As a result, Palestinians are being attacked, killed, and pushed off their land.

Since the beginning of the Iran war, six civilians have been killed by settlers in Masafer Yatta and the Jordan Valley, a family of four—including two children—was shot dead by the Israeli military while going on a shopping trip for Ramadan, and allegations of sexual violence are emerging in areas experiencing intensified settler incursions.

Israeli authorities recently announced the expansion of firearm licenses to all “Jewish neighborhoods” in occupied Jerusalem, enabling more than 300,000 individuals to carry weapons. This move effectively transforms civilians into instruments of territorial enforcement and further blurs the line between civilian and military power. At the same time, Israel has sharply intensified restrictions on movement and worship during Ramadan and imposed sweeping checkpoints, sealing off cities and villages, and effectively emptying Jerusalem’s holy sites of worshippers.

Over the weekend, organized settler violence took place all over the West Bank in Nablus, Ramallah, and Jenin governorates. Incidents involved arson attacks on homes, vehicles, and infrastructure, and physical assaults on residents. In some areas, large groups of settlers carried out organized raids, causing injuries and property damage, while Israeli authorities imposed heightened security measures.

Taken together, these actions fragment Palestinian geography, confine communities to isolated enclaves, and consolidate Israeli control over land. By arming settlers, expanding their operational reach, and subjecting civilians to escalating coercion, Israel is accelerating a process of de facto annexation without the need for formal declaration.

The war with Iran will eventually end, but the political consequences it sets in motion may last much longer. Ultimately, what is at stake is the broader question of Palestinians’ right to self-determination. Without sustained international pressure on Israel, the window is closing for a just and durable political future for Palestine, and for the broader regional stability that would come along with it.