Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s Latin America Brief.

The highlights this week: Fuel inflation hits Latin America as a result of the Iran war, Peru’s presidential candidates ready for elections, and a new Netflix documentary series profiles a prosecutor fighting femicides in Mexico City.

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Energy supply strains related to the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran have so far been less acute in Latin America compared to much of the developing world. Governments have not issued work-from-home decrees or rationed fuel, as they have in parts of Asia. But the global energy shock has still hit the region, bringing with it both economic pressures and heated political conversations.

Chile has experienced some of the most dramatic effects. On March 26, for example, the price of a common grade of gasoline jumped around 30 percent higher than the previous day, while the cost of diesel rose by 60 percent. President José Antonio Kast, who was inaugurated last month, hasn’t used much policy to control price hikes, mostly passing the cost on to Chileans.

The right-wing Kast’s approval rating has already dropped more than 10 percentage points since his inauguration, according to pollster Pulso Ciudadano.

Meanwhile, in Bolivia, public outcry over the price of gas caused the state energy company to partially walk back one of President Rodrigo Paz’s flagship pro-market policies: the removal of fuel subsidies. And in Peru, a presidential debate on Tuesday featured a discussion of the candidates’ proposals to ensure that gas is affordable.

Though getting rid of fuel subsidies can be politically risky, there is no guarantee that expanding them preserves leaders’ popularity. In Brazil, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announced a plan for diesel subsidies after the war began. But Lula, who is running for reelection in October, slipped in presidentialpolls to around the same level as his top competitor, Flávio Bolsonaro.

Lula has tried to deflect blame for the price shocks toward U.S. President Donald Trump, saying the Iran war “belongs to Trump.” He might dial up that tactic as the election approaches, especially since Flávio—the son of former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro—has sought to align himself with Trump. (He appeared last weekend at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Texas.)

For many countries in the region, the energy shock could demonstrate the value of diversifying away from fossil fuels. Brazil built up a huge domestic ethanol industry after the 1973 oil shock, and it is considering a policy of increasing the amount of ethanol in vehicle fuel blends. Even Argentina’s pro-fossil-fuel administration is benefiting from similar capabilities, last week increasing the percentage of ethanol that is allowed in car tanks.

In March, Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley pledged to speed up the country’s shift toward renewable energy, saying it was “folly” that Barbados did not do so faster after the oil shock that followed Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Colombia is due to host an international gathering on exactly that topic this month. The First Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels, co-organized with the Netherlands, has been in the works since last November’s United Nations climate summit in Brazil. It may gain increased relevance amid the current energy shock.

At least 46 countries have said they are sending delegations to the conference, including major oil producers Australia, Canada, and Norway.

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Sunday, April 12: Peru holds presidential elections.

Friday, April 24, to Wednesday, April 29: Colombia co-hosts a conference about transitioning away from fossil fuels.

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Pushback from Beijing. U.S. pressure on Latin American countries to reduce China’s presence in the region has prompted reactions from Beijing. After Panama’s Supreme Court canceled the contracts of a Hong Kong company in the Panama Canal, China has increased detentions of Panama-flagged ships in its own waters, according to the U.S. Federal Maritime Commission.

In a separate case, China responded to Mexico’s new tariffs on Chinese goods, alongside imports from other countries that it doesn’t have a trade agreement with, by conducting a trade probe into Mexico. Last week, it concluded that Mexico’s actions were a “breach of trade rules” and said it reserved the right to take unspecified further actions in response.

Colombia’s investment rules. Colombian President Gustavo Petro announced last week that he plans to move the country away from investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) arrangements. The ISDS system allows companies to seek financial compensation from countries for certain government actions.

That means, for example, that if Colombia were to ban oil drilling, an oil company that already has contracts to drill might be able to seek compensation. ISDS provisions exist in many trade deals, but countries both in Europe and across the developing world have retreated from them in recent years, citing the desire for sovereignty.

Petro is due to leave office in August, and his successor might reverse course. For now, however, his pledge is yet another example of how the Petro administration has run counter to much of Colombia’s diplomatic orthodoxy. Long a champion of free trade, the country had complied with the ISDS system in the past.

Fighting femicides. A new Netflix documentary series, The Prosecutor, follows the first-ever director of Mexico City’s office devoted to combating femicides, or gender-based killings of women. Mexico City codified the crime of femicide in 2011, but alleged cases continued to pile up, uninvestigated and unsolved.

So, in 2019, Mexico City created the new public prosecutor’s office. Lawyer Sayuri Herrera entered the office aiming to push back against widespread impunity in Mexico’s justice system. The filmmakers were granted extensive access to the office, and the series captured details of that world.

The Prosecutor includes a moment when members of the Mexican elite make calls to try to block the prosecution of a wealthy man who gunned down his wife in a restaurant full of witnesses. Rich or poor, perpetrators generally expressed no remorse on the stand. The series shows why fighting gender-based violence is such a steep battle—but also what trying to do so looks like.

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• The United States Has Become a Rogue Stateby Stephen M. Walt
• Trump Is Losing the War in Iranby Ravi Agrawal
• Three Scenarios for a Post-Trump Worldby Hal Brands

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Ahead of Peru’s presidential election on April 12, candidates with relatively strong polling numbers include Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of former President Alberto Fujimori; Rafael López Aliaga, known as “Porky,” the right-wing former mayor of Lima; and Alfonso López Chau, a center-left former central bank director.

Support for López Chau has grown in recent weeks, according to polls by Datum and the Institute of Peruvian Studies (IEP). But even so, IEP polling late last month found that a whopping 29 percent of Peruvians were still undecided, and 27 percent more said that they might change their mind before election day. The race is likely to proceed to a runoff.

Surveys suggest that insecurity and the economy are voters’ top concerns. In response to the global energy crisis, all the leading candidates have said they will work to bring energy prices down. Fujimori has pledged fuel subsidies, while López Aliaga and López Chau promised relief through rates set by the government. López Chau also vowed a shift to green energy.

The two right-wing candidates have suggested they will implement hard-line security crackdowns, which may give them a boost at a time when insecurity is on the rise in Peru. But above all, Peru’s vote seems to be dominated by dissatisfaction with the political class. The country has had eight presidents in the last decade.