Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief.
The highlights this week: Pakistan faces rising risks as U.S.-Iran talks falter, India’s ruling party suffers a rare legislative defeat, and a Nepali cabinet minister grapples with a scandal amid the new government’s anti-corruption crusade.
Will Pakistan Lose Its Diplomatic Bet?
When Pakistan agreed to serve as a mediator in the Iran war, it surely knew that brokering peace between two mistrustful rivals wouldn’t be easy.
Recent days have been especially trying. A first round of talks in Islamabad on April 11 and 12 failed to produce a deal. Pakistan was preparing to host a second round of negotiations this week, but worsening U.S.-Iran tensions have kept the two sides from traveling to Islamabad. The peace process is now in doubt.
As long as the mediation efforts drag on with no deal—or even with no understanding between the United States and Iran about the need to end the conflict—Pakistan is incurring significant risks by serving as a mediator.
First, Pakistan’s relations with Iran are friendly but fragile; the trust and support that Islamabad has earned could start to fray. China’s buy-in—crystallized in the five-point peace plan that it released alongside Pakistan last month—was likely necessary to ensure that Tehran accepted Islamabad’s facilitation efforts; after all, Beijing has more leverage over Tehran.
But the longer Pakistan continues to be the chief messenger and interlocutor for the United States in the talks, the more likely it is that Iran grows suspicious. U.S. President Donald Trump’s frequent praise of Pakistan’s leaders—and earlier reporting that Trump has urged the Pakistanis to push the peace process along—doesn’t help Islamabad’s cause with Iran.
Pakistan’s close alliance and mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia, Iran’s bitter rival, hasn’t yet undercut its credibility as a neutral mediator in Tehran’s eyes. This is likely in part because Pakistan has sought to deepen ties with Iran and project itself as a neutral player. But if Islamabad’s mediation efforts fail to yield positive dividends, Tehran’s view may shift.
Another risk for Pakistan is political. If peace talks collapse and the war resumes, Islamabad could become the fall guy—especially since it has been so public about its lead role in mediation efforts. Critics abroad and political opponents at home would slam Pakistan for investing diplomatic capital in an ambitious effort only to be taken for a ride by the United States and Iran.
Finally, it’s worth noting that Pakistan will sustain increasing energy costs due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz the longer the war lasts—it imports 80 percent of its energy from the Gulf. Such costs will exacerbate Islamabad’s existing economic problems as it grapples with debt payments and conditions imposed by the International Monetary Fund.
FP’s Ravi Agrawal writes that the global south is suffering disproportionately from spiking energy prices compared with the United States, which Pakistan’s situation underscores.
Pakistan is relatively comfortable managing these risks and has not indicated that it wants to step back from its prominent role. That’s because of the compelling motivation it has to stay in the game: It is highly vulnerable to the effects of the conflict. Progress was made during the first round of talks, and Islamabad won’t want to squander that.
Ultimately, Pakistan wants to leverage its role as a mediator to deepen its influence in the Middle East, a region of great strategic significance. And as long as the White House wants Islamabad mediating, the Pakistanis are unlikely to back away—they also want to stay in the good graces of the mercurial and unpredictable Trump administration.
Pakistan has received international attention and praise for its role as a lead mediator. But with the challenges mounting, the honeymoon appears to be over. Pakistan will soon need to grapple with the difficult implications of taking on a role that has elevated its global standing but also put it in a potentially precarious spot.
What We’re Following
Modi dealt a small blow. In Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s nearly 12 years in power, a few of his initiatives have suffered serious backlash: a demonetization plan in 2016, the 2019 amended citizenship law, and agricultural reforms that were repealed after mass farmers’ protests in 2020-21. But he has rarely failed to get his way when it comes to policymaking.
That makes the fate of a bill recently introduced by Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) more striking. The proposed constitutional amendment intended to increase women’s representation in parliament. Last Friday, it was blocked by the opposition, which alleged that it was a pretext for the BJP to redraw India’s electoral map.
This marks the first time that the BJP has failed to pass a constitutional amendment while Modi has sat in the prime minister’s office. The setback is unlikely to inflict significant political damage on Modi, who remains highly popular in India, but it is a reminder of the challenges that Modi faces in his third term, as he rules in coalition.
As a result, the opposition has a more powerful presence in parliament, and Indian National Congress leader Rahul Gandhi formally serves as the opposition leader. For Modi, pursuing his legislative agenda won’t be as easy as it used to be.
Pahalgam attack anniversary. Wednesday marked one year since a terrorist attack that killed 26 mostly tourists in picturesque Pahalgam, in Indian-administered Kashmir. The tragedy was horrific: The assassins targeted Hindu tourists and reportedly demanded that people state their religious beliefs before shooting them.
The attack was also unusual: Kashmir is no stranger to militant violence, but it typically targets Indian security forces, not civilians. It triggered the most serious India-Pakistan military conflict in decades, which lasted four days. New Delhi blamed Islamabad for the massacre, launching airstrikes in Pakistan that it justified as a counterterrorism imperative.
At the time, India didn’t publicly provide any proof linking the militants to Islamabad, and Pakistan denied involvement. Though still tense, India-Pakistan relations have not experienced any fresh escalations in the last year—though an attack near the Red Fort in New Delhi last November briefly raised fears of renewed conflict.
West Bengal goes to the polls. The first phase of voting in India’s West Bengal state election begins on Thursday, with the second phase to follow next week. There is much at stake in the vote: West Bengal is India’s fourth-most populous state and home to one of Modi’s most powerful rivals, Mamata Banerjee, who is vying for a fourth term as chief minister.
Unsurprisingly, the campaign has been fractious and bitter. It ended this week with Banerjee’s party, the Trinamool Congress (TMC), accusing Indian Home Minister and top BJP leader Amit Shah of taunting her with rhetoric hostile to women.
The election also plays out against controversy rooted in changes by India’s Election Commission that removed 9 million people from West Bengal’s voter rolls. New Delhi said the move weeded out ineligible voters, but critics accused the BJP of trying to solidify its electoral position; many of those removed are Muslims, who traditionally vote for the TMC.
Recent polling further raises the stakes: The TMC is expected to win, but the BJP is projected to make significant gains. If these predictions hold, the state’s politics could grow more contentious, with the BJP in a better position to push back against one of its nemeses.
FP’s Most Read This Week
- Why Did China Buy Up the World’s Ports?by Alexander Wooley and Lea Thome
- Order Without Orderby Parag Khanna
- The Iran War Comes for the ‘King of Chemicals’by Christina Lu
Under the Radar
Sudan Gurung, a former DJ and event planner, was a top protest leader in the mass movement that ousted Nepal’s government last September. He is now serving as the newly appointed home minister under the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), which won the country’s March 5 elections in a landslide and pledged to expunge corruption.
But Gurung finds himself in an awkward position for an anti-corruption crusader: The Kathmandu Post has obtained Gurung’s bank records, and they raise potential red flags that have drawn criticism across Nepal’s political spectrum—including from within the RSP.
The records include a series of transactions between Gurung’s personal and business accounts, multiple deposits into his personal account from individuals under investigation from Nepali authorities, and transfers to sketchy microinsurance companies in which he hold shares.
An RSP lawmaker told the Post on Monday that the allegations against Gurung are serious and that they should be investigated. For his part, the home minister denied that he has done anything wrong and said he will cooperate in any investigation.
No comments yet. Be the first to comment!