Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s Situation Report, coming to you from both sides of the Atlantic this week. John is in Prague having interesting conversations at the GLOBSEC Forum (more on that below), while Rishi holds down the fort at his desk in dreary Washington.
Alright, here’s what’s on tap for the day: Trump’s Greenland obsession keeps on keeping on, Israeli minister Itamar Ben-Gvir sparks international (and rare domestic) condemnation, and a senior Qatari official discusses the country’s role as a mediator.
While much of U.S. President Donald Trump’s attention has been focused on Iran lately, he hasn’t given up on his push to gain control of Greenland.
Recent reporting indicates that the Trump administration is still making hard-line demands in ongoing negotiations with Greenland and Denmark. Trump’s special envoy to Greenland, Jeff Landry, is also visiting the island this week. Landry, who said on Wednesday that the United States needs to “put its footprint back on Greenland,” has reportedly faced an icy reception.
John is at the GLOBSEC Forum in Prague this week and moderated a panel on Arctic security on Thursday. Trump’s fixation on Greenland was mentioned (unprompted) mere moments into the discussion, which is indicative of how this issue has continued to loom large over the trans-Atlantic alliance.
“We are still in a surreal situation and dialogue where the leading member of NATO threatened to invade and take over the biggest Arctic state, which is a part of the kingdom of Denmark,” said Thordis Gylfadottir, the former foreign minister of Iceland.
‘Completely absurd.’ Trump has said that the United States needs to control Greenland for national security purposes and to prevent Russia and China from taking it over. But a 1951 agreement already grants the U.S. considerable military access to Greenland. Though there’s no doubt that Russia and China both have major interests in expanding their influence in the Arctic—and Moscow already has a massive military presence in the region—there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical that they would attack Greenland and risk open war with NATO.
“The U.S. and NATO have all they need in Greenland in order to pursue their defense and security concerns,” Gylfadottir said. She went on to say that it’s a “completely absurd notion” to suggest there’s any logic to the Trump administration’s push to take over Greenland.
There are valid security concerns to raise and need for investment in areas such as surveillance, but “you don’t have to threaten to invade a country that is part of your closest ally to do so,” Gylfadottir said.
NATO’s survival. Trump had NATO allies up in arms earlier this year after refusing to rule out using military force to seize Greenland. He eventually backpedaled, but it’s clear that Trump’s threats have left a sour taste in the mouths of NATO allies.
Respecting the sovereignty of fellow members is the “most fundamental principle you can have in an alliance,” said Tristan Aureau, director of the French Foreign Ministry’s Center for Analysis, Planning, and Strategy.
Johannes Koskinen, chair of the Finnish parliament’s foreign affairs committee, said the negotiations among the United States, Greenland, and Denmark are now happening in the “right rooms,” but it’s still the “wrong timing” and “wrong way” to take up the issue.
In spite of the strains that Trump has placed on the trans-Atlantic alliance via his position on Greenland—and his antagonistic position toward NATO more generally—there is still optimism that it will survive him.
While damage has already been done to the relationship and there’s likely to be more, not much has changed on a “technical level” in terms of military-to-military cooperation between the United States and other NATO members, said Tomasz Smura, a board member and director of the international security program at the Casimir Pulaski Foundation, a think tank based in Warsaw, Poland.
Ian Brzezinski, who served as U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense for Europe and NATO policy under President George W. Bush, said there’s “no question that NATO is going to survive.”
“Trump doesn’t like NATO, that’s clear,” said Brzezinski, who is now a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, but he’s a “minority position,” and there’s strong support for the alliance on Capitol Hill and among the U.S. public. “It’s going to be a rough couple of years, but Europe needs to take the long bet on the United States.”
David Baker, the U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense for European and NATO policy, has stepped down from his role, according to a senior U.S. official who spoke to SitRep on condition of anonymity (hat tip to our colleague Sam Skove for flagging his departure). Baker “did not get removed but left of his own volition,” the official said. A Pentagon spokesperson declined to comment on Baker’s resignation, but his official bio has now been updated to the past tense.
Meanwhile, a prospective trip to China by Baker’s former boss, Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby, has been held up by Beijing until Trump decides whether to approve a $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan, the Financial Timesreported. According to the South China Morning Post, Colby’s visit was meant in part to set the stage for U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth—who accompanied Trump to Beijing last week—to make his own trip later this year.
The Trump administration has nominated acting Pentagon comptroller Jules Hurst—who recently estimated to lawmakers that the Iran war has cost U.S. taxpayers around $29 billion—to assume that role permanently.
James Roscoe, the United Kingdom’s second-most senior diplomat in Washington, has abruptly left his post, according to multiple reports. The U.K. government has not provided a reason for his departure, but it comes amid an investigation into leaks from a U.K. national security council meeting where the U.S. ability to use U.K. military bases was discussed.
What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.
Ben-Gvir courts controversy. Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, a far-right member of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition, drew a rare rebuke from Netanyahu as well as several foreign officials after sharing videos of himself taunting activists detained by Israel for sailing a flotilla with aid for Gaza. Ben-Gvir’s actions were slammed by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who demanded an apology for “treatment that violates human dignity.”
The foreign ministers of several countries whose citizens were part of the flotilla, including the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, and Spain, also criticized Ben-Gvir’s actions. U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee also weighed in with a strong response, calling the Israeli minister’s behavior “despicable” and saying that it “betrayed [the] dignity of his nation.”
Netanyahu said in a statement that Ben-Gvir’s treatment of the activists was “not in line with Israel’s values and norms.”
Xi hosts Putin. Russian President Vladimir Putin concluded his two-day visit to Beijing with a flurry of joint announcements and camaraderie with Chinese President Xi Jinping that were largely absent when Xi hosted Trump less than a week earlier. The Russian and Chinese leaders issued a comprehensive joint statement touting deeper military, economic, and energy cooperation, though an expected deal to build a natural gas pipeline between the two countries was notably absent.
Xi may not be done with diplomacy for the month, however, with Time magazine and South Korean news agency Yonhap reporting that he could visit North Korea as early as next week for the first time since 2019.
Medical staff wearing personal protective equipment stand next to the coffin of a patient who died of Ebola in Rwampara, Democratic Republic of the Congo, on May 21.Seros Muyisa/AFP via Getty Images
John also sat down with Qatar’s minister of state for foreign affairs, Mohammed bin Abdulaziz al-Khulaifi, at the GLOBSEC Forum for a conversation on seeking peace in the Middle East.
When asked whether recent events—including the Israeli strike in Doha last year and the rippling consequences of the Iran war—have led Qatar to rethink playing a role as a mediator, Khulaifi said, “Absolutely not.”
“This actually encourages us to play a bigger role,” he said, emphasizing that Doha remains committed to playing a major part in resolving conflicts.
Qatar was at the center of the negotiations that led to a cease-fire in Gaza, and it’s a member of the Board of Peace. But that peace process has stalled, as Hamas refuses to disarm and Israel continues to conduct near-daily strikes. When asked how this impasse can be overcome, Khulaifi said that the situation demands continuous engagement from the international community.
“One mediator cannot do it all. This is not only the responsibility of Qatar, or the responsibility of the U.S., or the responsibility of Egypt. This is the collective responsibility by all international stakeholders who will be able to contribute positively to the peacemaking process,” Khulaifi said. “Many of us at the international level, we surrender to the word ‘cease-fire.’ But the problem is that we don’t take the extra step to the long-lasting solution, something that would provide more hope for the Palestinian people and the region as well.”
Tuesday, May 26: India hosts a meeting of the Quad foreign ministers in New Delhi.
Russia hosts a four-day international security forum in Moscow.
Friday, May 29: Cease-fire talks between Israel and Lebanon are scheduled to take place in Washington.
Saturday, May 30: Malta holds snap parliamentary elections.
Sunday, May 31: Colombia holds a presidential election.
$4 billion—the amount of money that Sweden, NATO’s newest member, is paying France for four new navy warships in a deal announced on Tuesday.
“Maybe after I do this, I’ll go to Israel and run for prime minister.”
—Trump, speaking to reporters on Wednesday, referencing his purported 99 percent approval rating in Israel.
- Iran Could Be Trump’s Greatest Failureby Ravi Agrawal
- The Trump-Xi Summit Was Remarkably Banalby James Palmer
- The World Keeps Asking Iran the Wrong Questionby Ali Hashem
The smell of diplomacy is in the air. Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa revealed in a Tuesday post on X that Trump had gifted him two bottles of Trump-branded perfume called “Victory 45-47”—reupping Sharaa’s previous supply that Trump gifted him during the Syrian leader’s visit to Washington last year. “Some meetings leave an impression; ours apparently left a fragrance,” Sharaa wrote.
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