“I think Europe is pleased now to have a stable democratic state providing gas, Norway can deliver on that for the coming years as a stabiliser, and will do so through [new] licenses,” Norway's prime minister Jonas Gahr Støre told reporters at the end of May.
On 12 June, he argued that Arctic gas might be safer than purchasing LNG from the US, and that if Europe does not want it, it “might go somewhere else”, suggesting producers could redirect supplies to other countries willing to buy it rather than leave the gas undeveloped.
Yet due to environmental concerns, the EU has been advocating for an international ban on new oil and gas drilling in the Arctic since 2021.
But in reality, it's already happening: since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Norway has become the continent's largest gas supplier. It now supplies roughly one-third of Europe's gas demand, and while the majority originates from the North Sea, some of the supplies already flow from the Barents Sea inside the Arctic.
This comes at a crucial time for Norway's fossil fuel industry. Without new sources, Norwegian production is set to decline in the 2030s, and Norway believes that around 60% of its undiscovered petroleum resources are located in the Barents Sea.
In January 2025, the government awarded stakes in 53 offshore exploration licences and announced plans to further expand exploration opportunities in Arctic waters. The Energy Ministry proposed opening 76 additional blocks for future licensing rounds, including 68 in the Barents Sea.
These decisions were taken before the latest Middle East tensions, suggesting Norway's current interest campaign is only adding to a long-term strategy.
Critics have been arguing for years that the Arctic is uniquely vulnerable, warming three to four times faster than the global average, while pointing out that there is no technology to prevent or clean up oil spills in icy waters. Drilling would present a massive threat to the marine ecosystem.
A domestic dispute over Arctic drilling resulted in a major legal battle in 2020. Back then, Norway's Supreme Court rejected a landmark climate lawsuit brought by environmental organisations, including Greenpeace, seeking to halt new oil exploration permits in the Barents Sea. The court ruled in favour of the government, allowing exploration to continue.
The EU has no legal right to ban drilling in Norway's sovereign territories, but as it is Norway's main customer, roughly buying 95% of its gas, it could use its purchasing power to put pressure on it – in theory. In reality, it's not left with many alternatives to head to. And Oslo is well aware of that.