You can bet on these and many other things on prediction markets, online platforms that allow users to gamble on how future events pan out. Unlike traditional betting operators, the odds for the outcome of a bet aren’t set by an operator, but change in real-time, according to user investments.

This distinction hasn’t stopped European regulators from restricting them from operating without gambling licenses.

Last week, nine European countries pledged to collaborate in restricting prediction markets. Countries like Spain or France have already geoblocked the platforms.

But even as bans increase, the rise of prediction markets seems inevitable. Since the World Cup started, prediction markets have reached new heights. Users worldwide traded USD 8.7 billion in just the first week of the tournament, by far the highest recorded weekly volume.

If you happen to catch one of the 54 games played so far, you might have seen ads around the pitch for ADI Predictstreet. The new prediction market is partnered with FIFA, and is based in Europe. More European platforms could follow.

What explains this popularity? According to Aris Komporozos-Athanasiou, professor at the University College London, prediction markets give users a sense of control in uncertain times.

“We have always responded to uncertainty with speculation,” he told The European Correspondent. “And our participation in markets, especially prediction markets, is a collective response to uncertainty.”

According to Jonathan White, professor at the London School of Economics, we’ve all felt this uncertainty recently. He argues that parties across the political spectrum increasingly frame their platforms as ‘emergency responses’ to crises. But he also thinks that uncertainty has become an individual, economic problem.

“If you're working in a precarious job, if you work on a short-term contract, struggle to pay rent, etc., it’s very hard to make any plans. It becomes a luxury to plan into the future,” he told The European Correspondent.

If we feel like we can’t shape the future anymore, the speculation in prediction markets offers us an alternative. “You are trying to gauge what's likely to happen as opposed to trying to shape how things should happen. They become a resource for you to improve yourself by winning a bit of money, rather than to try and improve society by trying to shape the future,” White continued.

Despite this individual focus, prediction markets feel like social platforms. “They feature all the rituals of a social media app: chatrooms, comment sections, live feeds, doomscrolling,” Komporozos-Athanasiou said. Users frequently comment under bets, discuss likelihoods, share sources, joke and adapt their bets up until an event happens.

The platforms use this social structure in their marketing. One of the world's biggest, Polymarket, argues that its platform offers a collective consensus, providing “unbiased and accurate probabilities in real time, cutting through the noise of human and media biases.”

The CEO of Kalshi, Polymarket's competitor, called his platform a “truth machine” that harnesses the power of collective wisdom. “Prices reflect the aggregated sentiment of all participants, weighing news, data, expert opinions, and culture to determine the true odds.”

But rather than representing societal consensus on whether the earth is flat or whether Bardella will win the French presidency next year, they represent insider knowledge: a study found that just 3% of traders, often with insider or expert information, drive the accuracy of prediction markets.

This hasn’t stopped users from accessing the platforms, at times even if they can’t bet on them. Despite bans, French regulators explained that page visits on prediction markets quadrupled between September 2025 and January 2026 – perhaps in search of some collective wisdom.