Iceland and the EU have had a long-standing situationship.

In August, Icelanders will vote in a referendum on whether or not to reopen the membership conversation with the EU.

The last time Iceland and Brussels tried to make it work over a decade ago, negotiations came to a halt over fishing rights. They couldn't agree on the EU's Common Fisheries Policy, which would require Iceland to open its fishing grounds to other EU members. The fishing industry makes up roughly 40% of the country's export value, so Icelanders have been wary of allowing EU vessels access to their waters.

Now, however, Brussels is turning on the charm. The EU commissioner for fishing, Costas Kadis, recently told the Financial Times that the EU is open to solutions and will discuss exemptions regarding fish stocks and sharing arrangements.

Eiríkur Bergmann, professor of politics at Bifröst University in Iceland, told The European Correspondent that this new tone is in line with the EU's demand for an enlargement “success case” after long and complicated negotiations with other membership candidates.

“We have been participating in the European Union for a long time, through the European Economic Area (EEA). For Iceland to enter now would be relatively easy for both parties,” Bergmann said.

Another reason that the EU is playing nice, according to Bergmann, is defense and security. Given Iceland's strategic geographical position close to the Arctic and Russia, the EU sees an advantage in securing its territory within the union.

As a founding member of NATO, Iceland is in limbo. With the US pulling back from defense commitments, the island must consider looking towards the EU, which in Bergmann’s opinion will become a military and defense union sooner rather than later.

If it does join, fishing rights will be one of three major issues, alongside whether to adopt the Euro and security and defence issues.

“Icelanders have worried about losing control of their fishing resources, so any sign of major flexibility in that regard will definitely help motivate Icelanders to at least reopen the negotiations,” Bergmann explained.

Recent polls show roughly 47% of the Icelandic population against and 40% in favour of joining the EU.

“I have always said that joining the EU is not much of a calculation. At this point it is more of an existential question,” Bergmann said. “The question now is what Iceland will call home.”

For many years, Icelanders have been consistently split about entering the EU into thirds: one third for, a third against, and a third undecided, though those numbers differ a little bit from time to time. Recently, however, there's been a bit of a surge in support for right-wing parties that are against EU membership.