What happened: Last Thursday, a Turkish court removed the leadership of the country's second-largest party, CHP, effectively disabling the most important opposition to president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

Since party leader Özgür Özel was elected in 2023, the CHP won its first local elections against president Erdoğan's ruling AKP party in two decades, and consistently challenged the government in national polls.

Over the weekend, the opposition leadership barricaded themselves in the party offices, calling the ruling a “judicial coup”. Riot police then stormed the building, forcibly removing Özel to reinstate the party's former leader, who is widely rejected by the party and unpopular for consistently losing against Erdoğan.

Why this matters: Türkiye is spiralling further into autocracy: the government has centralised political and judicial power over the past decade. The state capture has escalated since March 2025, when the government arrested Istanbul mayor and Erdoğan rival Ekrem İmamoğlu on politically motivated corruption charges. Courts seek a 2,430-year sentence against him.

Other elected officials have been replaced, media channels and universities shut down, and surveillance amplified – and now, the country's largest opposition party could be permanently weakened.

As for Europe: We're growing more dependent on Türkiye's increasingly autocratic government, especially in defence and migration. Brussels has sent Türkiye €12.4 billion since 2011 in exchange for limiting irregular arrivals. The partnership is set to continue at least partially until 2029.

What's next: The new CHP leadership is expected to be much more docile towards Erdoğan's government. Under Özel, the party organised almost weekly mass rallies and built oppositional coalitions. Özel wants to continue on that path, saying that the party now “lives on the streets and squares,” but without the support of the new leadership, the most important driver of Türkiye's political opposition looks at risk.

Erdoğan, meanwhile, looks to secure his fourth term as President by changing the constitution. He needs a two-thirds majority to do so, and a weakened opposition would certainly help him get there.