• Corruption
• Mina Al-Oraibi

Since late June, Iraqis have been enthralled by a political drama that rivals anything on Netflix’s Narcos. In footage released by Iraqi authorities, police raid the homes of dozens of parliamentarians and officials, uncovering stashes of banknotes, gold, and weapons in living rooms, kitchen walls, and buried underground. On June 23, Iraq’s Supreme Judicial Council announced that more than $106 million in embezzled cash had been seized, and subsequent raids led to several more millions. The total value has yet to be declared.

According to Judge Munir Haddad, a legal advisor to the prime minister, the Iraqi state has lost at an estimated $2 trillion to corruption since 2003. To put it into context, that figure is equivalent to at least 15 years of total government expenditure. Last year, Iraq scored 28 out of 100 on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index. This was its best ranking in more than a decade.

Since late June, Iraqis have been enthralled by a political drama that rivals anything on Netflix’s Narcos. In footage released by Iraqi authorities, police raid the homes of dozens of parliamentarians and officials, uncovering stashes of banknotes, gold, and weapons in living rooms, kitchen walls, and buried underground. On June 23, Iraq’s Supreme Judicial Council announced that more than $106 million in embezzled cash had been seized, and subsequent raids led to several more millions. The total value has yet to be declared.

According to Judge Munir Haddad, a legal advisor to the prime minister, the Iraqi state has lost at an estimated $2 trillion to corruption since 2003. To put it into context, that figure is equivalent to at least 15 years of total government expenditure. Last year, Iraq scored 28 out of 100 on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index. This was its best ranking in more than a decade.

Every Iraqi prime minister who comes to power has promised to address this problem. In 2014, then-newly appointed Haider al-Abadi said corruption was plaguing the security sector. He claimed that there were 50,000 “ghost soldiers” in the ranks of the army, whose salaries and benefits were being siphoned off. While Abadi ultimately got credit for tackling this specific issue, corruption as a whole continued to grow.

In 2020, Mustafa al-Kadhimi entered office with another promise to curb corruption. As part of this effort, he uncovered illicit networks across state institutions, with officials such as the head of the National Pension Authority charged with graft. Kadhimi was then succeeded by Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, who claimed that his predecessor’s allies had pulled off the “heist of the century.” He accused them of stealing $2.5 billion in tax revenues, which they vehemently denied. Kadhimi argues that it was his government that first started the investigation into illicit activities surrounding tax funds. To date, no charges have been made against Kadhimi, suggesting his accusers know the allegations would not stand up in a court of law.

This latest round of anti-corruption accusations started with the arrest of then-Deputy Oil minister Adnan al-Jumaili. Facing serious allegations, Jumaili decided to cooperate and take his co-conspirators down with him. The Iraqi judiciary and government then worked together to issue warrants for dozens of officials and members of parliament. While the full details of the investigations have not been made public, the allegations are linked to kickbacks from oil deals as well as related money laundering charges.

However, even these wide-ranging arrests do not represent a majority of those who have siphoned money from the Iraqi state. Moreover, these individuals are also largely affiliated with Sudani and Muthanna al-Samarrai, the leader of the Azm bloc. As a result, “Operation Dawn” at best looks feeble or at worst appears aimed at settling scores rather than genuinely rooting out corruption across Iraq.

So, what is driving Iraq’s new prime minister, and are his efforts likely to continue? Since assuming office in mid-May, Ali al-Zaidi has been making every effort to show that he is a man of the people. He recently visited the Iraq Mall in Baghdad to mingle with voters, for example, part of a campaign to raise his profile. Government sources have also been briefing journalists to emphasize that the prime minister is personally overseeing the anti-corruption cases.

Zaidi needs to do this in part because he remains a weak candidate. He had never held office before and was chosen as a compromise candidate. Now, he needs to swiftly build support both within the country and outside it. Domestically, it seems to be working. Voters worry that those detained represent second- or third-tier politicians. But despite that, the campaign is still hugely popular in Iraq.

To be fair to Zaidi, he has been in office for less than two months. A wide-ranging and impartial effort to eliminate all corruption would take time. He would need to build the right alliances to tackle the deeply vested interests at stake. This means the next few months will be vital in judging Zaidi’s seriousness.

There are three potential scenarios. The first, which is what most Iraqis and international actors want, is an escalation of anti-corruption efforts, accompanied by the transparent use of seized funds to improve the lives of everyday Iraqis. This scenario is a long shot but would change Iraq’s fortunes dramatically and would make Zaidi the most popular prime minister in decades. It could also lead to the fall of his government, especially if more MPs are targeted and there is a need to disband parliament.

The second scenario is one that Iraq has seen many times before. Arrests are made only for the accused to find a way to get the charges dropped, leaving just a handful of people to take the fall. This would be a huge blow to Zaidi’s credibility and more importantly a blow to the country.

The third and most likely scenario is that Zaidi will seek to strike a balance. This entails expanding the scope of the investigations, but not targeting all those who are complicit, while pursuing charges against those who have already been arrested. This would let Zaidi keep his fragile government intact. But it would also require the full support of the judiciary and security forces to implement such an agenda, and that is not guaranteed.

At this juncture, international pressure can help Zaidi stay the course. The United States recently launched Operation Economic Fury, aimed at Iran-aligned militia groups. This has led to pressure on the Iraqi government and Iraqi banks to go after these groups’ financing.

Zaidi is due to visit Washington this month. He wants to ensure that President Donald Trump sees him as capable and willing to make bold moves. The United States also wants to bring business to Iraq. For that, the curbing of corruption is crucial.