Russia, the world's second-largest diesel exporter after the US, banned diesel exports last week – bad news for anyone waiting for cheaper prices to fill up their tank.
Moscow faces a deepening domestic fuel shortage caused by Ukraine's drone strikes on fuel facilities. The ban will stay in place at least until the end of July, while Russia will be importing fuel from abroad to make up for the losses.
While the EU doesn't buy diesel directly from Russia anymore, the supply crunch will have global consequences: Russia's regular customers, such as Türkiye or Brazil, will now need to go elsewhere to secure their supply – mainly, the US.
This will inevitably drive up prices everywhere, though the situation will likely not escalate as much as in spring. A litre of diesel stayed under €2.00 in Europe according to the latest data from 6 July – before Russia decided on exports.
Besides slightly higher costs, the consequences on Europeans will still be rather limited, Georg Zachmann, senior researcher at the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel, told the European Correspondent.
Not for Moscow, though. “The impact on Russia is substantial, as it turns from a profitable exporter to a cost-carrying importer, straining its tight budget further,” he said.
The severe fuel crisis is indeed one of the most visible signs of the war's effect on Russians' daily life.
Long queues are forming at petrol stations across the country. Drivers are spending nights waiting for fuel or travelling to neighbouring regions and abroad to find supplies. Some regions have capped refills at 30–60 litres, while reports of fuel theft are rising. Authorities have introduced fuel sales restrictions in almost all of the country's regions.
A grey market is booming online, where fuel is being resold through marketplaces and social media. Desperation has pushed some Russians to resort to extreme methods to bypass queues at petrol stations, like posing as police officers or using weapons. A woman from Penza admitted on social media that she borrowed a friend’s disabled child to gain priority access at a petrol station.
Shortages are spreading across sectors and are now affecting logistics, agriculture, and other industries. Airlines are reporting kerosene shortages, raising concerns about higher ticket prices and fewer flights.
Since March, mass production of long-range drones has allowed Ukrainian forces to strike targets thousands of kilometres from the border.
Russia’s air defences have struggled to contain these attacks. Since the spring, its fuel market has lost an estimated 2.7 million tonnes of petrol output, roughly a month’s worth of domestic consumption. Sixteen of Russia’s 40 major oil refineries and 80 smaller facilities have been partially or completely knocked offline.