Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s Situation Report. John is flying solo this week as Rishi enjoys some much-deserved time off, but he’s received some assistance from his fantastic FP colleague Christina Lu.
Alright, here’s what’s on tap for the day: Trump appears to back down on striking Iran, NATO allies rally around Greenland, and phase 2 of Trump’s Gaza plan (sort of) begins.
U.S. President Donald Trump appears to have backed away from taking military action against Iran—for the moment, at least—for its brutal, deadly crackdown on anti-government protests. Trump threatened to hit Iran hard if it continued to kill protesters but kept moving the goalposts even as reports of massacres trickled through a communications blackout imposed by the Iranian government.
The protests, which began in late December and were perhaps the largest in the Islamic Republic since the 1979 revolution, have seemingly been squashed. Trump alluded to this in comments on Wednesday. The “killing has stopped,” Trump said, adding that Iran had also called off planned executions of detained protesters. Some estimates have placed the death toll from the crackdown as high as 3,000, with more than 16,000 people arrested.
Late on Wednesday, there were still various signs that a U.S. strike could be impending—including a precautionary evacuation of some U.S. personnel from key bases in the region. By Thursday morning, however, the prospect of a kinetic strike appeared to have fizzled out—along with the demonstrations. Iran on Thursday reopened its airspace after a short-lived closure announced the day prior, in an indication that Tehran wasn’t expecting a U.S. attack.
The protests ending and Iran apparently holding off on executions of protesters “have given [Trump] an out,” Gregory Brew, an Iran analyst with Eurasia Group, told SitRep.
Trump also faced pressure from Gulf countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Qatar not to move forward with strikes over concerns that such a move would contribute to regional instability and hurt their interests. Qatar is home to Al Udeid, the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East, which was targeted by Iran after Trump ordered historic strikes on several of its nuclear facilities in late June 2025. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also urged Trump to postpone any plans for an attack on Iran, per the New York Times, amid concerns that such a move could do more harm than good at this time.
Spread too thin. It has also not been lost on many observers that Trump’s threats toward Iran have come as clashes between protesters and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents in Minneapolis have escalated following the fatal shooting of Renee Nicole Good by an ICE agent on Jan. 7. Trump on Thursday threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act and deploy the military in Minneapolis if the protests don’t die down.
This is all occurring at the same time that Trump is rattling major European allies with his push to acquire Greenland and just days after an astonishing U.S. military operation in Venezuela that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro.
In his second term, Trump has repeatedly exhibited a willingness to use the military anywhere and everywhere. But, in the process, Trump has also hamstrung himself. The U.S. military is the most powerful and well-financed force in the world, but it still has limits.
By maintaining such a large military presence in the Caribbean, even after the Maduro operation, Trump had fewer options to respond to the violence in Iran and also had to consider the fact that Tehran was likely to make good on its threat to retaliate against any U.S. actions.
“There aren’t enough assets in place to both deliver a decisive strike that he wants while also protecting U.S. bases and allies from Iranian retaliation,” Brew said.
An uncertain future. It’s not clear what happens next. The Iranian government appears to have reasserted control for the moment. But it’s hard to say whether this means that the protests will not flare up again, particularly as the Iranian economy continues to struggle. The Iranian government has survived, but for how long is another question.
The Treasury Department on Thursday also announced fresh sanctions against the “architects of the Iranian regime’s brutal crackdown on peaceful demonstrators,” including security officials such as Ali Larijani, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, as part of an apparent effort to continue pressuring Tehran against further violence. Meanwhile, the U.S. appears to be keeping its military options open—including by reportedly sending the USS Abraham Lincoln, a nuclear-powered supercarrier, to the region. This remains a space to watch closely in the days ahead.
Mykhailo Fedorov, 34, was officially appointed as Ukraine’s new defense minister by the country’s parliament on Wednesday. Fedorov previously served as the first deputy prime minister and digital transformation minister and is expected to place a strong emphasis on leveraging innovative technology in the country’s fight against Russia. “We are obligated to defeat the enemy in every technological cycle to stay one, two, or even ten steps ahead, thereby saving the lives of our soldiers and destroying the adversary as effectively as possible,” Fedorov said in a LinkedIn post on Wednesday.
What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.
Troops in Greenland. Several European countries continued deploying troops to Greenland on Thursday, just one day after U.S., Danish, and Greenlandic officials met at the White House for a high-stakes meeting over the island’s future that produced no major breakthroughs.
Trump has been adamant in his desire to control Greenland—which is a semi-autonomous Danish territory—citing its importance for U.S. national security, even as the island’s leaders have repeatedly insisted that it is not for sale. After meeting with U.S. officials, Denmark’s foreign minister conceded on Wednesday that Copenhagen and Washington “still have a fundamental disagreement” over the future of the island.
With all sides at an impasse, NATO members are now beefing up their military presence on Greenland. In a show of unity with Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom are now dispatching symbolic numbers of troops to the territory for a joint military exercise. —Christina Lu
Phase 2 in Gaza. The United States on Wednesday announced that phase 2 of Trump’s peace plan for Gaza was moving forward. Steve Witkoff, the president’s special envoy, on Wednesday said that the next phase “establishes a transitional technocratic Palestinian administration in Gaza” and “begins the full demilitarization and reconstruction of Gaza, primarily the disarmament of all unauthorized personnel.” Witkoff said the U.S. expects Hamas to fully comply with its obligations, including returning the last deceased hostage, and warned of severe consequences if it does not.
But Hamas has been adamant that it will not disarm. This remains a major obstacle to moving the peace process forward, despite the tough talk from Witkoff, along with the fact that Israel has not committed to fully withdrawing from the enclave—another key aspect of Trump’s plan.
Many details on phase 2 remain uncertain, though the leader of the technocratic committee has been announced: Ali Shaath, a former deputy minister in the Palestinian Authority. Trump is expected to announce the makeup of the Board of Peace, which will oversee the committee, in the coming days. But with the cease-fire still on shaky ground, actually demilitarizing Gaza will remain a major challenge as the U.S. tries to push things forward.
U.S. federal agents establish a perimeter in a residential area following a shooting in Minneapolis on Jan. 14. Scott Olson/Getty Images
SitRep on Thursday spoke with Adm. William J. Fallon, who was U.S. Central Command commander from 2007 to 2008, to get his thoughts on the situation in Iran and the potential for the U.S. to take action there.
“The issue with me is where are we going, what’s the strategic plan, the objective, and what kind of thought has gone in that they may be contemplating, which I have no idea because I’m not on the inside,” Fallon said, also emphasizing that Iran is a “dark hole” at the moment due to the regime’s success in blocking information access on what’s going on within the country.
Fallon recently had a book published on key lessons from America’s post-9/11 wars: Decisions, Discord & Diplomacy: From Cairo to Kabul. When asked about the U.S. military posture in the Middle East at present, Fallon said the United States has been “wrapped around the axle in the Middle East for decades” and “can’t seem to get off.”
“The bigger strategic challenge is in Asia with China,” Fallon said, underscoring that Beijing is cultivating relationships everywhere, including the Middle East.
Saturday, Jan. 17: Gen. Mamady Doumbouya is set to be inaugurated as president in Guinea.
Sunday, Jan. 18: Portugal is scheduled to hold presidential elections.
Monday, Jan. 19: The World Economic Forum’s annual meeting begins in Davos, Switzerland.
Wednesday, Jan. 21: Trump is set address the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos.
75—the percentage of Americans who say they oppose the United States attempting to take control of Greenland, according to a new CNN poll.
“Close ties with our northernmost allies are what make America’s extensive reach in the Arctic actually possible. And I have yet to hear from this administration a single thing we need from Greenland that this sovereign people is not already willing to grant us. Unless and until the president can demonstrate otherwise, then the proposition at hand today is very straightforward: incinerating the hard-won trust of loyal allies in exchange for no meaningful change in U.S. access to the Arctic.”
—Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell criticizing Trump’s push to acquire Greenland.
- The ‘Donroe Doctrine’ Makes No Senseby Stephen M. Walt
- Iran’s Currency Crisis Could Be the Regime’s Downfallby Alireza Nader and Nik Kowsar
- The World-Minus-One Momentby Amitav Acharya
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